{"id":1738,"date":"2026-06-25T09:07:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=1738"},"modified":"2026-06-25T09:07:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:07:38","slug":"new-inflation-report-could-fuel-concerns-over-higher-interest-rates-even-as-oil-prices-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=1738","title":{"rendered":"New inflation report could fuel concerns over higher interest rates, even as oil prices fall"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A closely watched inflation report is set to reveal how much price growth picked up in May \u2014 and whether many American consumers remain mired in an affordability crunch. <\/p>\n

Read more South Africa reaches World Cup knockouts for 1st time, stunning South Korea<\/a><\/p>\n

Wall Street forecasters expected the pace of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to have quickened compared with April data amid higher oil prices and stronger consumer spending. <\/p>\n

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The monthly PCE report is the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the central bank is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target \u2014 a level it has failed to reach for the past five years. Wall Street now anticipates the Fed will raise its key interest rate at least once by year\u2019s end in a bid to counteract the stronger price growth. <\/p>\n

By making it more expensive to borrow money, the Fed slows overall economic activity and, with it, the pace of price increases. <\/p>\n

\u201cThursday\u2019s PCE is set to take on greater importance for markets, especially since Federal Reserve Chair Warsh was emphatic in last week\u2019s meeting about the central bank\u2019s desire to achieve price stability, and this PCE reading could affect the market\u2019s rate hike expectations,\u201d Rick Gardner, chief investment officer at North Carolina-based RGA Investments, said in a statement.<\/p>\n

Until Wednesday, the direction of key interest rates had begun to decouple from that of oil prices, an unusual setup given they tend to rise together as dual threats of worsening inflation.<\/p>\n

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But things got back on track Wednesday, as oil prices hit new postwar lows and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, seen as a benchmark for borrowing costs throughout the economy, fell 9 basis points, to a level last seen in April. <\/p>\n

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction. <\/p>\n

\u201cNow that we are, I believe, on the other side of this conflict, gas prices will come back down, inflation will come back to target,\u201d he said Wednesday after an appearance at the Economic Club of New York.<\/p>\n

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With the war drawing to a close and vessels moving again through the Strait of Hormuz, some analysts predict Warsh will try to pursue a more \u201cdovish\u201d tack, or one designed to lower interest rates. <\/p>\n

President Donald Trump remains dead set on bringing rates down, and in the run-up to his appointment, Warsh expressed some skepticism about traditional inflation gauges that would support a case for keeping rates elevated.<\/p>\n

In a note to clients, research analysts with Citigroup said Warsh\u2019s decision to create \u201ctask forces\u201d to re-examine the Fed\u2019s approaches could result in decisions that lean dovish.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u201cThe market seems to underappreciate the flexibility implicit in appointing task forces to consider the drivers and measurement of inflation,\u201d the analysts wrote.<\/p>\n

Stock gains themselves have also shown signs of stuttering after a nearly unprecedented run of gains in April and May. <\/p>\n

Over those two months, thanks largely to gains in tech and despite the Iran war, the S&P 500 rallied 16%, which has occurred only one other time outside of post-recession bounces. The other time was just a few months before Black Monday\u2019s 1987 21% plunge. <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 is down about 4% from its all-time high this month. The Fed\u2019s telegraphing higher rates did not help \u2014 but the market may also simply have run out of room to run. <\/p>\n

\u201cGiven we\u2019d seen such a big rally that had stretched traditional valuation metrics, there simply wasn\u2019t much space to rally further to start with,\u201d Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank financial group, said in a note to clients this week. <\/p>\n

Read more Switzerland wraps up first place in Group B with a 2-1 victory over Canada at the World Cup<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A closely watched inflation report is set to reveal how much price growth picked up in May \u2014 as many Americans remain mired in an affordability crunch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nNew inflation report could fuel concerns over higher interest rates, even as oil prices fall - Trusted Moving Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=1738\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New inflation report could fuel concerns over higher interest rates, even as oil prices fall - 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