{"id":292,"date":"2026-05-26T21:38:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=292"},"modified":"2026-05-26T21:38:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:38:25","slug":"10-texas-counties-to-watch-in-the-cornyn-paxton-clash-from-the-politics-desk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=292","title":{"rendered":"10 Texas counties to watch in the Cornyn-Paxton clash: From the Politics Desk"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><p><em>Welcome to <\/em><em>From the Politics Desk<\/em><em>, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team\u2019s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.<\/em><\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=289\">Trump administration floats requiring all federal workers to sign NDAs<\/a><\/p><p><em>Steve Kornacki lays out the key parts of Texas that will determine whether Sen. John Cornyn can survive his primary tonight. Plus, we have the latest on Republican redistricting setbacks in South Carolina and Alabama. <\/em><\/p><div><\/div><p><em>Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.<\/em><\/p><p><em>\u2014 Adam Wollner<\/em><\/p><h2>10 counties to watch in Texas tonight<\/h2><h3>Analysis by Steve Kornacki<\/h3><p>A victory by Sen. <strong>John Cornyn<\/strong> in today\u2019s Republican primary runoff in Texas would represent a major upset. The limited available polling shows him running behind state Attorney General <strong>Ken Paxton<\/strong>, who received a potentially decisive boost when President <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong> endorsed him last week. <\/p><p>Cornyn\u2019s hopes depend on a repeat of March\u2019s preliminary round, when he unexpectedly finished in first place over Paxton, 42%-41%, despite trailing in most polls. A third Republican, Rep. <strong>Wesley Hunt<\/strong>, who represents a Houston-area district, finished third on the multicandidate ballot with 17%. <\/p><div><\/div><p>A key to Cornyn\u2019s first-place finish was his relative strength in most of the state\u2019s population centers. Consider the 10 top vote-producing counties in the preliminary round, which made up about 45% of all votes cast statewide. Cornyn won seven of them.<\/p><section><div><div><div><div><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.datawrapper.de\/_\/IOmIS\/?v=3\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/\/iframe.nbcnews.com\/y6c1nP6w?_showcaption=true&amp;app=1\" title=\"Create charts and maps with Datawrapper, Cornyn won 7 of the 10 biggest vote-producing counties in the March primary | Created with Datawrapper\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><p>Cornyn\u2019s showing in these counties netted out to a 34,883-vote edge over Paxton. In the state\u2019s other 244 counties, Cornyn lost to Paxton by a total of 3,065 votes.<\/p><p>Cornyn posted his best numbers in <strong>Dallas County<\/strong> and in the Austin area in <strong>Travis<\/strong> and <strong>Williamson counties<\/strong>. These tend to be areas with above-average concentrations of wealth and college degrees. Cornyn also had strong showings in Fort Worth\u2019s <strong>Tarrant County<\/strong> and San Antonio\u2019s <strong>Bexar County<\/strong>. To have a chance in the runoff, Cornyn will need all of these places to deliver for him again. <\/p><p>The only major population center where Paxton ran up landslide margins was in <strong>Montgomery County<\/strong>, home of The Woodlands, an enormous planned community that is defined in part by its deeply conservative politics. Montgomery produced the largest vote plurality of any county in the country for Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Expect another massive Paxton win here tonight. Could it be big enough, and backed by high enough turnout, to wipe out those Cornyn advantages elsewhere?<\/p><section><div><div><div><div><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com\/image\/upload\/rockcms\/2026-01\/asterisk-43f04b.svg\"\/><div><span>FOR<\/span><span>SUBSCRIBERS<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Texas Senate runoff will be a huge test of Trump's endorsements\" class=\"wp-image-291\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/541a43ca49c3e09cbf873ab7cc3e9580-576x1024.avif\" width=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/541a43ca49c3e09cbf873ab7cc3e9580-576x1024.avif 576w, https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/541a43ca49c3e09cbf873ab7cc3e9580-169x300.avif 169w, https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/541a43ca49c3e09cbf873ab7cc3e9580.avif 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/figure>\n<div><div><div><div><button><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMjAiIGhlaWdodD0iMjAiIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAyMCAyMCIgZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgeG1sbnM9Imh0dHA6Ly93d3cudzMub3JnLzIwMDAvc3ZnIj4KPHBhdGggZD0iTTEwLjA1NTcgOC4wOTU3TDE2LjAxNzYgMi4xMTMyOEwxOCA0LjEwMzUyTDEyLjAzOTEgMTAuMDg1TDE3LjgyOTEgMTUuODk2NUwxNS44NDY3IDE3Ljg4NTdMMTAuMDU2NiAxMi4wNzQyTDQuMTUzMzIgMThMMi4xNzA5IDE2LjAwOThMOC4wNzMyNCAxMC4wODVMMiAzLjk4OTI2TDMuOTgyNDIgMkwxMC4wNTU3IDguMDk1N1oiIGZpbGw9IndoaXRlIi8+Cjwvc3ZnPgo=\"\/><\/button><\/div><div><button><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMTUiIGhlaWdodD0iMTUiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+PHBhdGggZD0iTTAgMHYxNWwxNS03LjQxeiIgZmlsbD0iI0ZGRiIgZmlsbC1ydWxlPSJldmVub2RkIi8+PC9zdmc+\"\/><\/button><button><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMTkiIGhlaWdodD0iMTciIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+PHBhdGggZD0iTTQuMDUxIDZIMHY1aDR2LjAxOEwxMSAxN1YwTDQuMDUxIDZ6TTEzIDIuMDE5YTYuNSA2LjUgMCAwIDEgMCAxMi45NjJ2LTIuMDA4YTQuNSA0LjUgMCAwIDAgMC04Ljk0NlYyLjAyem0wIDQuMDMxYTIuNSAyLjUgMCAwIDEgMCA0Ljl2LTQuOXoiIGZpbGw9IiNGRkYiIGZpbGwtcnVsZT0iZXZlbm9kZCIvPjwvc3ZnPg==\"\/><\/button><\/div><\/div><div><span>00:00<\/span><span>00:00<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><div><h2>Texas Senate runoff will be a huge test of Trump&#8217;s endorsements<\/h2><div><span>02:42<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><p>More competitive in the preliminary March primary were <strong>Collin<\/strong> and <strong>Denton counties<\/strong>, each situated on the northern edge of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Both are experiencing rapid growth. They loom as swing areas tonight. So do <strong>Harris County<\/strong>, home of Houston and where about 10% of all votes will be cast, and its fast-growing suburbs in <strong>Fort Bend County<\/strong>. Cornyn and Paxton ran about evenly in these counties in March. Notably, Harris is the home base of Hunt, who also endorsed Paxton last week.<\/p><p>To have a chance tonight, Cornyn will want essentially a repeat of the first round of voting in these 10 counties. If he can do that, then he would need to hold his own in the rest of the state. This was the other key ingredient for him in the initial primary. While Paxton won more votes than him in rural and small-town Texas, the floor didn\u2019t fall out for Cornyn. But can he show the same kind of resilience in these places now that Trump has come out against him?<\/p><div><\/div><p><em>\ud83c\udfa5 <\/em><em>Tune in to the Kornacki Cam<\/em><em> when the first polls close in Texas at 8 p.m. ET to watch Steve break down the results.<\/em><\/p><p><strong>\u25b6\ufe0f <\/strong><em>Tune in to<\/em><em>Here\u2019s the Scoop\u2019s special Supreme Court edition<\/em><em>, where senior legal correspondent Laura Jarrett goes deep on major cases.<\/em><\/p><p><em>Laura will answer NBC News subscriber questions about the Supreme Court and more in a live Q&amp;A on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET. <\/em><em><strong>Submit your questions here \u2192<\/strong><\/em><\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=287\">Tree trimmer injured in deadly mosque shooting explains why he\u2019s the \u2018luckiest guy\u2019<\/a><\/p><h2>South Carolina\u2019s Trump-backed redistricting push fails in the state Senate amid GOP opposition<\/h2><h3>By Jane C. Timm and Matt Dixon<\/h3><p>The Republican-led South Carolina Senate voted against advancing a new congressional map, ending the redistricting effort in the state for now.<\/p><p>The failed vote was a surprise rejection of President <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong>, who had urged lawmakers to pass a redrawn map that eliminated the state\u2019s single majority-Black district, represented by longtime Democratic Rep. <strong>James Clyburn<\/strong>.<\/p><p>The South Carolina House approved the map last week in hopes of putting it into place for this year\u2019s midterm elections. As part of the effort, lawmakers also sought to set another primary election for the affected districts in August. But after early voting began Tuesday for the previously scheduled June 9 primary, some Republicans in the state Senate changed their tune, arguing it was too late to enact new district lines.<\/p><div><\/div><p>\u201cNeither my conscience nor my common sense will allow me to stop an election that is already underway,\u201d said state Sen. <strong>Richard Cash<\/strong>, a Republican who changed his vote because of the timing.<\/p><p>Advisers close to the White House \u2014 which has pressed Republicans across the country to pass new maps over the past year to shore up the party\u2019s narrow House majority \u2014 said they were caught off guard by the failed vote in the South Carolina Senate, with one calling it a \u201cbetrayal.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cWe knew it was bumpy all along, never a guarantee,\u201d one adviser told NBC News. \u201cBut the votes were there on the last vote and nothing changed.\u201d<\/p><p>The adviser also said that the White House was not given a heads-up about the vote from South Carolina Republican Gov. <strong>Henry McMaster<\/strong>, which they would have expected if votes were changing. By Jane C. Timm and Matt Dixon <\/p><p>All members of the state Senate are up for re-election in 2028.<\/p><p>\u201cThese next two years are going to bring hell from the MAGA grassroots wing of the party already skeptical of many of these old guard GOP senators,\u201d one longtime South Carolina Republican operative said.<\/p><div><\/div><p><strong>Read more \u2192<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>\ud83d\uddfa\ufe0f Related: <\/strong>A panel of federal judges blocked Alabama from using a Republican-drawn congressional map, saying it \u201cintentionally discriminated based on race.\u201d State Attorney General <strong>Steve Marshall <\/strong>said he would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. <\/p><div><div><h2>\ud83d\uddde\ufe0f Today&#8217;s other top stories<\/h2><ul><li><strong>\u26ea Exclusive:<\/strong> In a telephone interview with NBC News, Vice President <strong>JD Vance<\/strong> praised Pope <strong>Leo XIV <\/strong>for issuing a new theological document rife with warnings about unbridled advancements in AI. Read more \u2192<\/li><li><strong>\u27a1\ufe0f Iran war:<\/strong> Iran accused the United States of \u201ca clear violation of the ceasefire\u201d between the two countries after the U.S. launched what it called defensive strikes that threatened to disrupt intensifying talks to end the war. Read more \u2192<\/li><li><strong>\ud83d\uddf3\ufe0f Keeping options open:<\/strong> Rep. <strong>Thomas Massie<\/strong>, R-Ky., filed paperwork to run for office again in 2028, saying he hasn\u2019t made a \u201cfinal decision\u201d about his political future. Read more \u2192<\/li><li>\ud83c\udf34 <strong>California dreamin\u2019: <\/strong>Los Angeles Mayor <strong>Karen Bass<\/strong>\u2019 high disapproval ratings and criticism over her handling of last year\u2019s fires has created an opening for Republican <strong>Spencer Pratt<\/strong> in the June 2 all-party primary. Read more \u2192<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><p><em>That\u2019s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today\u2019s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.<\/em><\/p><p><em>If you have feedback \u2014 likes or dislikes \u2014 email us at <\/em><em><strong>politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com<\/strong><\/em><\/p><p><em>And if you\u2019re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up <\/em><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><em>. <\/em><\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=285\">Tech titans mostly silent after Pope Leo\u2019s warning about risks of AI<\/a><\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Steve Kornacki previews the 10 key counties to watch as John Cornyn faces Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-the-politics-desk"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>10 Texas counties to watch in the Cornyn-Paxton clash: From the Politics Desk - Trusted Moving Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/trustedmovinggroups.com\/?p=292\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"10 Texas counties to watch in the Cornyn-Paxton clash: From the Politics Desk - 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