5 vulnerable incumbents to watch in tonight’s primaries: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

If it’s Tuesday, it’s another primary day. Steve Kornacki looks at the sitting members of Congress who are at risk of losing. Plus, Henry J. Gomez reports on an Elon Musk-related controversy in Michigan’s battleground Senate race.

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— Adam Wollner

5 vulnerable incumbents to watch in tonight’s primaries

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Four House incumbents have been defeated in primaries so far this year — and that number could grow tonight.

Here are the five who seem to be the most vulnerable, ranked in order of the peril they face.

Rep. Dan Goldman (New York’s 10th District): The two-term Democratic incumbent’s hold on this seat has never seemed that secure. In 2022, Goldman benefited from a fractured primary field, securing the Democratic nomination with just 26% of the vote. And against low-wattage opposition in the 2024 primary, he still only won two-thirds of the vote.

Now he is facing a well-known challenger, Brad Lander, who won two citywide elections for comptroller in New York and finished third in last year’s mayoral primary. Lander has the backing of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who carried this district 2-to-1 over his nearest foe in the 2025 mayoral primary, and has leaned into liberal messaging, particularly when it comes to Israel.

An Emerson poll last month had Lander crushing Goldman by more than 30 points. A close race tonight would be a surprise, and a Goldman win would be an absolute shock. He is the most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot today — and maybe of the entire cycle anywhere.

Rep. Adriano Espaillat (New York’s 13th District): Espaillat is the other incumbent Democrat being targeted by Mamdani, who has thrown his weight behind progressive activist Darializa Avila Chevalier, who is aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. The district, which is based in Harlem and northern Manhattan and extends into the Bronx, is about 50% Hispanic and 25% Black.

Key to Espaillat’s chances may be how much support — and turnout — he can generate from Black voters in Harlem. Espaillat’s path to Congress a decade ago came from mobilizing the district’s growing Hispanic population, which put him at odds back then with Black leaders. Avila Chevalier, meanwhile, could benefit from gentrification, which has brought new college-educated and progressive voters into the area.

If turnout is low, those voters could hold disproportionate sway — something that famously happened in a nearby district in 2018, when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shocked longtime Rep. Joe Crowley.

Rep. April McClain Delaney (Maryland’s 6th District): This seat opened up two years ago when Rep. David Trone opted to run for the Senate, ultimately losing in the Democratic primary against Sen. Angela Alsobrooks. With Trone giving up the seat, McClain Delaney won the Democratic nomination with 40% of the vote, then fended off her GOP foe by 6 points in November to secure the seat.

But now Trone wants back in and is challenging McClain Delaney for his old seat — and he’s spent $25 million of his own money to do it. McClain Delaney has her own fortune to draw on: her husband, John Delaney, is a wealthy businessman who previously represented the district, largely self-funding his own campaigns.

The 6th District takes in the outer Washington, D.C., suburbs and exurbs of Montgomery and Frederick counties, where the bulk of the vote is. There’s no meaningful ideological daylight between the candidates, so McClain Delaney’s incumbency may give her an edge, with voters not having an obvious reason to throw her out. But Trone’s name recognition and money make him a formidable threat.

Rep. Celeste Maloy (Utah’s 3rd District): Maloy’s standing with the GOP base has been suspect from the start. She won her seat in a special election in 2023 after eking out a primary victory. Seeking a full term in 2024, she was challenged from the right and survived by just 176 votes.

Since then, Utah’s congressional map has been redrawn by a court and Maloy is now running in new territory against Phil Lyman, a former state legislator whose battles with the federal Bureau of Land Management have given him populist appeal on the right.

Maloy is running with President Donald Trump’s backing, a major boost for her, and Lyman has raised little money for his effort. But this year’s primary results also suggest that Trump’s endorsement may have more impact in primaries when it is directed against a specific candidate he has deemed disloyal. That is not the case here, as Lyman portrays himself as staunchly pro-Trump. If there is substantial grassroots restiveness with the incumbent, Lyman could be the kind of candidate who could channel it.

Rep. Blake Moore (Utah’s 2nd District): Moore serves as the chairman of the House Republican Conference and has Trump’s endorsement. His problem is that he enjoys little trust from the party’s activist base: This is the third consecutive time that Moore has sought re-election and lost to a challenger at the Utah GOP convention.

This time around, that challenger is state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee, who has made an issue of Moore’s past support of redistricting reform, alleging that it helped produce this year’s new court-ordered congressional map that all but ensures Democrats will win one of Utah’s seats.

The convention defeat didn’t keep Moore from running in the primary, since he was able to petition his way onto the ballot. And he won his previous two primaries easily despite facing setbacks at the state convention. So he seems likely to survive this one, but his complicated relationship with the GOP base means there’s always going to be some uncertainty.

🎥 Tune in to the Kornacki Cam at 8 p.m. ET to watch Steve break down all the results. Afterward, he will answer questions on a livestream for NBC News subscribers.

🗳️ Keep reading: Ben Kamisar has more on tonight’s primaries in Maryland, New York, South Carolina and Utah.

Trump’s DOJ struggles to show evidence of widespread voter fraud

By Ryan J. Reilly

The Trump administration has been struggling to demonstrate evidence of widespread voter fraud with just months to go before midterms and as the president insists the nation’s elections are “rigged,” according to a review of cases by NBC News.

Keep reading →

Haley Stevens, an Elon Musk critic, keeps SpaceX PAC money in key Michigan Senate race

By Henry J. Gomez

When Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., launched her Senate campaign last year, she repeatedly villainized Elon Musk, the tech mogul whose cost-cutting government efficiency project was at the time an unpopular priority of President Donald Trump’s administration.

The “Trump-Musk chaos agenda,” Stevens told The Washington Post in April 2025, “is wreaking havoc on people’s lives.”

But Musk’s political agenda has also benefited Stevens’ political career.

The PAC tied to Musk’s SpaceX rocket company contributed a total of $50,000 to Stevens’ House campaign fund and her leadership PAC between 2019 and 2024, Federal Election Commission records show.

The SpaceX PAC has not donated to Stevens’ Senate campaign, but Stevens last year transferred a large chunk of her House campaign funds — more than $1 million — to her new Senate account. And while Democrats in other races have passed their SpaceX contributions on to charity, Stevens has no plans to follow their lead, a campaign spokesperson told NBC News.

“Haley fights for Michigan and only Michigan — and nothing will ever change that,” the spokesperson, Arik Wolk, said. “That’s why she’s taken on Elon Musk and fought and delivered for Michigan manufacturing on everything from traditional auto lines to motorcycle plants and aerospace suppliers.”

Wolk did not directly answer questions about why Stevens is keeping the money.

Musk, who became a major Republican donor and Trump supporter in 2024, remains a bogeyman for Democrats. More recently, he became the world’s first trillionaire, following SpaceX’s initial public stock offering.

Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, set for Aug. 4, is one of the year’s premier battles to determine what the future of the party looks and sounds like in a battleground state where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is not seeking re-election.

Read more →

🗞️ Today’s other top stories

☑️ Trump rebuke: The Senate approved a war powers resolution previously passed by the House that calls for an end to the U.S. war against Iran. Read more →
⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court ruled against a devout Rastafarian who sought damages after Louisiana prison officials cut his dreadlocks despite his claim that it violated his religious rights. Read more →
🗳️ Vote watch: The ACLU will spend more than $50 million on the 2026 midterms, with half going toward efforts to ensure smooth administration of elections as Trump seeks to exert more control over the process. Read more →
⬅️ The purge: Trump’s new acting director of national intelligence, Bill Pulte, began firing staff members at the office yesterday. Read more →
🚫 What’s in a name: A man with the same name as GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan challenged a decision from a top Alaska election official to remove his name from the primary ballot. Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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