Even if inflation cooled in June, experts say price pressure isn’t over
Inflation will likely remain a headache even if the rate of price increases slowed in June.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to report the consumer price index for last month at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
Many economists expect to see a decline in the overall headline number thanks to falling energy prices. But some warn that the issue is nowhere close to over, and price declines may take more time to happen than consumers would like — especially if energy prices surge again.
After the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June, oil prices declined from the mid-$90s to around $70 per barrel. However, that decline has started to come undone, at least partially. Both U.S. crude and Brent oil benchmarks are trading much higher than their recent low, with Brent touching $80 per barrel on Monday.
“With the MOU on life support and tensions escalating in the Middle East,” inflation expectations are facing “renewed pressure,” Société Générale strategists said in a note.
Compounding the issue, critical oil storage hubs have been drawn down in a bid to keep a lid on prices, but those storage facilities have reached decades-low levels. They will need to be refilled with hundreds of millions of barrels of oil, which could again cause prices to rise.
Gas prices, the most visible sign of inflation to consumers, are tracing a similar trajectory. In recent weeks, prices declined sharply from the highest level of the year. However, in the last week, that decline came to a halt at $3.79 per gallon, and prices have risen 8 cents since, as of Monday.
Those rising gas prices come at the same time as slowing wage growth. In June, average hourly earnings increased by 3.5%, far below May’s inflation reading of 4.2%.
Economists expect the rate of inflation to fall by 0.2% on a month-over-month basis or to 3.8% from a year ago, according to a survey conducted by Dow Jones. That decline is set to be driven primarily by falling energy prices.
In May, overall inflation rose to its highest level since early 2023, after the war with Iran sparked a global energy shock, driving up the prices of oil and gas along with bond yields, which influence consumer borrowing rates. Airline tickets and transportation costs have also risen as a result.
In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has complained that the decline in gas prices had slowed, but experts believe there is more to stubborn inflation than energy.
Warning of “price stickiness on the way down,” Deutsche Bank economists said that they expect “relatively muted declines in both airline fares and delivery services” in Tuesday’s report.
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Bond yields are also rising alongside oil, as inflation expectations kick back up. The 10-year U.S. government bond yield, which has the heaviest hand in steering consumer interest rates, hovered around 4.57% on Monday after falling to as low as 3.37% in the immediate aftermath of the memorandum of understanding’s signing. It’s also back to nearly its highest level of the year.
The explosive buildout of artificial intelligence systems and data centers around the world is also driving price increases.
As tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and others are racing to buy up as much memory as they can, the prices of key components are surging. There are also only a handful of global companies that make memory for iPhones, computers and data centers.
As a result, Apple last month raised the price of many of its flagship products.
“The rapid expansion of AI data centers has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage,” the company said in a statement at the time. “We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly.”
“It’s a once-in-a-100-year storm,” tech analyst Dan Ives told NBC News last month. “It’s expensive and it’s getting more expensive, and the AI buildout needs memory, which is a great thing for the memory chip players. It’s a bad thing for everyone else.”
Other consumer technology companies, including video game console makers Xbox and PlayStation, have also raised prices.
Away from energy and food costs, core inflation — which excludes the volatile food and energy categories — is expected to only slightly tick down to 2.8% from 2.9% in May, a sign of that stickiness.
That also has economists and Fed policymakers concerned. On Monday, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said, “We are past the point where we can attribute large price increases to earlier tariff hikes.”
Waller said if the reading of core inflation is “hot” again this week, the Fed will need to consider raising rates “soon.”
Chairman Kevin Warsh is slated to testify before lawmakers Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed’s next interest rate decision is scheduled for July 29.
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